Kuva ku nshuro ya 5 yaho, "Umuryango w’ibihugu by’Uburayi" ku gipimo cy’ibiciro ku bicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga na peteroli mu Burusiya byatangiye gukurikizwa ku mugaragaro.Amategeko mashya azashyiraho igiciro cy’amadolari ya Amerika 60 kuri buri barrale yoherezwa mu mahanga n’Uburusiya.
Mu gusubiza “gahunda y’ibiciro by’ibihugu by’Uburayi”, Uburusiya bwavuze mbere ko butazatanga ibicuruzwa bya peteroli na peteroli mu bihugu bishyiraho ibiciro by’ibiciro bya peteroli y’Uburusiya.Ni kangahe iki giciro kizagira ingaruka ku kibazo cy’ingufu z’i Burayi?Ni ubuhe buryo bwiza bwo kohereza ibicuruzwa ku isoko ry’imiti mu gihugu?
Ese kugena ibiciro bizakora?
Mbere ya byose, reka turebe niba iki gipimo cyibiciro gikora?
Raporo iri ku rubuga rw’ikinyamakuru cyo muri Amerika cyitwa National Interests, abayobozi b’Amerika bemeza ko igiciro cy’ibiciro gifasha abaguzi kurushaho gukorera mu mucyo no gukoresha neza.Nubwo Uburusiya bwagerageza kurenga igipimo cy’ibiciro hamwe n’abaguzi hanze y’ubumwe, amafaranga yabo azakomeza kwiheba.
Icyakora, ibihugu bimwe na bimwe birashoboka ko bitubahiriza gahunda yo hejuru y’ibiciro kandi bizashingira kuri serivisi z’ubwishingizi uretse iz’Uburayi cyangwa G7.Imiterere igoye yisoko ryibicuruzwa ku isi nayo itanga amahirwe yinyuma ya peteroli yu Burusiya ifatirwa ibihano kugirango ibone inyungu nyinshi.
Raporo y’inyungu z’igihugu ivuga ko ishyirwaho rya “karitsiye y’abaguzi” ritigeze ribaho.Nubwo ibitekerezo bishyigikira igipimo cy’ibiciro bya peteroli ari ubuhanga, gahunda y’ibiciro izagabanya gusa imvururu z’isoko ry’ingufu ku isi, ariko ntizagira ingaruka nyinshi mu kugabanya peteroli yinjira mu Burusiya.Muri ibyo bihugu byombi, hazabazwa ibitekerezo by’abafata ibyemezo by’iburengerazuba ku ngaruka n’igiciro cya politiki cy’intambara y’ubukungu barwanya Uburusiya.
Ibiro ntaramakuru by'Abanyamerika Associated Press byatangaje ku ya 3 ko igiciro cy’amadolari 60 kidashobora kugirira nabi Uburusiya, nk’uko abasesengura babitangaje.Kugeza ubu, igiciro cy’ibikomoka kuri peteroli ya Ural yo mu Burusiya cyamanutse munsi y’amadolari 60, mu gihe igiciro cy’ibikomoka kuri peteroli cya Londres Brent ari 85 $ kuri buri barrale.Ikinyamakuru New York Post cyasubiyemo ibyavuzwe n'abasesenguzi ba JPMorgan Chase bavuga ko niba uruhande rw'Uburusiya rwihoreye, igiciro cya peteroli gishobora kuzamuka kugera ku madolari 380 kuri buri barrale.
Uwahoze ari Minisitiri w’imari muri Amerika, Mnuchin, yigeze kuvuga ko inzira yo kugabanya igiciro cya peteroli y’Uburusiya idashoboka gusa, ahubwo ko yuzuyemo icyuho.Yavuze ko “bitewe n’uburayi butumiza mu mahanga ibicuruzwa bituruka kuri peteroli bitunganijwe, peteroli y’Uburusiya irashobora gukomeza kujya mu Burayi no muri Amerika nta mbogamizi igihe cyose inyuze kuri sitasiyo zitwara abantu, kandi gutunganya agaciro k’ibicuruzwa bitwara abantu n’inyungu nziza mu bukungu , bizashishikariza Ubuhinde na Türkiye kongera ingufu mu kugura peteroli ya Burusiya no gutunganya ibikomoka kuri peteroli bitunganijwe ku rugero runini, bikaba bishoboka ko bizaba impinduka nshya mu bukungu kuri ibi bihugu byambukiranya. ”
Nta gushidikanya ko iki gihe cyakajije umurego mu kibazo cy’ingufu z’i Burayi.N’ubwo ibarura rya gaze ry’ibihugu byinshi by’Uburayi riremerewe cyane, nk’uko byatangajwe n’Uburusiya muri iki gihe ndetse n’uko intambara y’Uburusiya izabera mu Burusiya, Uburusiya ntibuzabangamira byoroshye kuri ibi, kandi ahari igipimo cy’ibiciro ni ikinyoma gusa.
Minisitiri w’ububanyi n’amahanga w’Uburusiya, Sergei Lavrov, ku ya 1 Ukuboza yavuze ko Uburusiya budashishikajwe n’iburengerazuba bw’ibiciro by’ibiciro bya peteroli by’Uburusiya, kubera ko Uburusiya buzarangiza mu buryo butaziguye amasezerano n’abafatanyabikorwa bayo kandi ko butazaha peteroli ibihugu bishyigikira ishyirwaho rya peteroli y’Uburusiya igiciro cyo hejuru.Kuri uwo munsi, Visi Perezida wa mbere wa Banki Nkuru y’Uburusiya Yudayeva yavuze ko mu myaka yashize, isoko mpuzamahanga rya peteroli ryagiye rihura n’imihindagurikire y’urugomo.Ubukungu bw’Uburusiya na sisitemu y’imari byagaragaje guhangana n’ingaruka z’isoko ry’ingufu, kandi Uburusiya bwiteguye impinduka zose.
Ese ingamba zo kugabanya ibiciro bya peteroli zizatuma habaho itangwa rya peteroli mpuzamahanga?
Dufatiye ku ngamba z’uko Uburayi na Amerika bitabujije burundu peteroli yoherezwa mu Burusiya, ahubwo byafashe ingamba zo kugabanya ibiciro, Uburayi na Amerika birizera kugabanya ibiciro by’intambara i Moscou kandi bikagerageza kutagira ingaruka zikomeye kuri peteroli ku isi gutanga no gusaba.Biteganijwe mu bice bitatu bikurikira bikurikira ko igipimo gishobora kuba ntarengwa cy’ibiciro bya peteroli kitazatuma habaho itangwa rya peteroli n’ibisabwa.
Ubwa mbere, igiciro ntarengwa cy’amadolari 60 ni igiciro kitazatuma Uburusiya budashobora kohereza peteroli hanze.Turabizi ko impuzandengo yo kugurisha peteroli y’Uburusiya kuva muri Kamena kugeza Ukwakira yari amadorari 71, naho igiciro cyo kugabanya peteroli y’Uburusiya yohereza mu Buhinde mu Kwakira cyari amadorari 65.Mu Gushyingo, bitewe n’ingamba zo kugabanya ibiciro bya peteroli, peteroli ya Ural yagabanutse munsi y’amafaranga 60 inshuro nyinshi.Ku ya 25 Ugushyingo, igiciro cyo kohereza peteroli y’Uburusiya ku cyambu cya Primorsk cyari amadorari 51,96 gusa, hafi 40% ugereranije n’amavuta ya Brent.Muri 2021 na mbere, igiciro cyo kugurisha peteroli yu Burusiya nacyo gikunze kuba munsi y $ 60.Kubwibyo, ntibishoboka ko Uburusiya butagurisha peteroli imbere yigiciro kiri munsi y $ 60.Niba Uburusiya butagurishije peteroli, buzatakaza kimwe cya kabiri cy’amafaranga yinjira mu ngengo y’imari.Hazabaho ibibazo bikomeye mumikorere yigihugu no kubaho kwingabo.Kubwibyo,
ingamba zo kugabanya ibiciro ntizatuma igabanuka rya peteroli mpuzamahanga.
Icya kabiri, peteroli ya Venezuela izasubira i Jianghu, ni umuburo ku Burusiya.
Ku mugoroba ubanziriza gukurikizwa ku mugaragaro itegeko ryahagaritswe rya peteroli n’ibiciro bya peteroli, Perezida w’Amerika Biden yahise atangaza inkuru nziza muri Venezuwela.Ku ya 26 Ugushyingo, Isanduku ya Leta zunze ubumwe za Amerika yemereye igihangange Chevron kongera ingufu mu bucuruzi bw’ubushakashatsi bwa peteroli muri Venezuwela.
Twabibutsa ko mu myaka yashize, Amerika yagiye ikurikirana ibihugu bitatu bitanga ingufu, ari byo Irani, Venezuwela n'Uburusiya.Ubu, mu rwego rwo kwirinda ko Uburusiya bukomeza gukoresha intwaro z’ingufu, Amerika irekura peteroli ya Venezuela kugira ngo igenzure kandi iringanize.
Guhindura politiki ya guverinoma ya Biden ni ikimenyetso gisobanutse neza.Mu bihe biri imbere, ntabwo Chevron gusa, ahubwo n'andi masosiyete akora peteroli ashobora gukomeza ubucuruzi bwabo bwo gucukura peteroli muri Venezuwela igihe icyo aricyo cyose.Kugeza ubu, umusaruro wa peteroli ya buri munsi muri Venezuwela ni hafi 700.000, mu gihe mbere y’ibihano, umusaruro wa peteroli wa buri munsi warenze miliyoni 3.Inzobere mu nganda ziteganya ko ingufu za peteroli ya Venezuela izahita igaruka kuri miriyoni 1 ku munsi mu mezi 2-3.Mugihe cyigice cyumwaka, irashobora kugarukira kuri miriyoni 3 kumunsi.
Icya gatatu, amavuta ya Irani nayo arimo gukubita amaboko.Mu mezi atandatu ashize, Irani yagiranye ibiganiro n’Uburayi na Amerika, yizeye gukoresha ikibazo cya kirimbuzi mu rwego rwo gukuraho ibihano bya peteroli no kongera ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga.Ubukungu bwa Irani bwaragoye cyane mu myaka yashize, kandi amakimbirane yo mu ngo yarushijeho kwiyongera.Ikomeje kongera ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga kugirango ibeho.Uburusiya bumaze kugabanya ibyoherezwa mu mahanga, ni amahirwe meza kuri Irani yo kongera ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga.
Icya kane, mugihe ibihugu byinshi bikomeje kuzamura igipimo cyinyungu kugirango igenzure ifaranga, izamuka ryubukungu bwisi yose rizagabanuka mumwaka wa 2023, kandi ingufu zizagabanuka.OPEC yatanze ubuhanuzi inshuro nyinshi.Nubwo Uburayi na Amerika byafatira ibihano ingufu z’Uburusiya ibihano by’ibiciro, itangwa rya peteroli ku isi irashobora kugera ku buringanire bw’ibanze.
Igipimo cyibiciro bya peteroli kizatuma izamuka rikabije ryibiciro bya peteroli?
Ku ya 3 Ukuboza, kubera ko igiciro cy’ibiciro bya peteroli by’Uburusiya bizashyirwa mu bikorwa ku ya 5 Ukuboza, ibiciro bya peteroli ya Brent ejo hazaza byari bituje, bifunga amadorari 85.42 kuri buri barrale, munsi ya 1.68% ugereranije n’umunsi w’ubucuruzi wabanjirije.Ukurikije isuzuma ryuzuye ryibintu bitandukanye, igipimo cyibiciro bya peteroli gishobora gusa gutuma igiciro cya peteroli kigabanuka, ariko ntibitume izamuka ryibiciro bya peteroli.Nkuko impuguke z’uyu mwaka zashyigikiye ko ibihano byafatiwe Uburusiya byatuma izamuka ry’ibiciro bya peteroli binanirwa kubona igiciro cya peteroli kigera ku madolari 150, ntibazabona igiciro cy’amavuta arenga 100 $ gishobora kumara ibyumweru bibiri muri 2023.
Icya mbere, uburinganire hagati yo gutanga peteroli n’ibisabwa byashyizweho nyuma yintambara.Nyuma y'akajagari ko gutanga no gukenerwa mu gihembwe cya kabiri, Uburayi bwongeye kubaka umuyoboro mushya wo gutanga peteroli udashingiye ku Burusiya, ariwo shingiro ryo kugabanuka kw'ibiciro bya peteroli ku isi mu gihembwe cya gatatu.Muri icyo gihe, nubwo ibihugu byombi by’ubucuti by’Uburusiya byongereye umubare w’amasoko ya peteroli ava mu Burusiya, byombi byagumye kuri 20%, ntibyagera ku muryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi bingana na peteroli y’Uburusiya hafi 45% mbere ya 2021. Nubwo umusaruro w’amavuta y’Uburusiya uhagarara. , ntabwo bizagira ingaruka zikomeye ku itangwa rya peteroli mpuzamahanga.
Icya kabiri, Venezuwela na Irani bategerezanyije amatsiko umwanya wo hejuru.Ubushobozi bwo gukora peteroli muri ibi bihugu byombi burashobora gukuraho burundu igabanuka ry’itangwa rya peteroli ryatewe n’ihagarikwa ry’ibicuruzwa bya peteroli by’Uburusiya.Ibitangwa nibisabwa biringaniye, kandi igiciro ntigishobora kuzamuka.
Icya gatatu, guteza imbere amasoko mashya yingufu nkingufu zumuyaga ningufu zizuba, hamwe niterambere rya bioenergy, bizasimbuza icyifuzo cyingufu za peteroli zimwe na zimwe, nacyo kikaba kimwe mubintu bibuza izamuka ryibiciro bya peteroli.
Icya kane, nyuma y’ishyirwa mu bikorwa rya peteroli y’Uburusiya, hashingiwe ku mibanire yo kugereranya ibiciro, izamuka ry’amavuta atari mu Burusiya rizagabanywa n’igiciro gito cya peteroli y’Uburusiya.Niba peteroli yo mu burasirazuba bwo hagati 85 na peteroli yo mu Burusiya 60 ifitanye isano yo kugereranya ibiciro bihamye, mugihe igiciro cya peteroli yo mu burasirazuba bwo hagati cyazamutse cyane, abakiriya bamwe bazinjira muri peteroli y’Uburusiya.Iyo igiciro cya peteroli mu burasirazuba bwo hagati kigabanutse cyane hashingiwe kuri 85, Uburayi na Amerika bizagabanya igiciro cyo hejuru cy’amavuta y’Uburusiya, ku buryo ibiciro byombi bigera ku buringanire bushya.
Iburengerazuba "gutondekanya ibiciro" bikurura isoko ryingufu
Uburusiya burashaka gushyiraho “ihuriro rya gaze gasanzwe”
Biravugwa ko abasesenguzi n’abayobozi bamwebamwe baburiye ko “ibiciro by’ibiciro by’iburengerazuba” bishobora kurakaza Moscou bigatuma bigabanya itangwa rya gaze gasanzwe mu bihugu by’Uburayi.Kuva muri Mutarama kugeza Ukwakira uyu mwaka, ibihugu by’Uburayi byatumije mu Burusiya gaze gasanzwe y’amazi 42% kurusha icyo gihe cyo mu 2021. Uburusiya bwatanze gaze gasanzwe y’amazi mu bihugu by’Uburayi bwageze kuri metero kibe miliyari 17.8.
Byavuzwe kandi ko Uburusiya bwaganiriye ku ishyirwaho rya “gazi isanzwe” na Qazaqistan na Uzubekisitani.Umuvugizi wa Perezida wa Qazaqistan, Kassym Jomart Tokayev, yavuze ko iyi ari igikorwa cyatanzwe na Perezida w'Uburusiya Putin.
Peskov yavuze ko igitekerezo cyo gushinga ubwo bufatanye ahanini gishingiye ku gusuzuma gahunda ihuriweho yo gutanga ingufu, ariko ibisobanuro bikiri mu biganiro.Peskov yavuze ko Qazaqistan ishobora kuzigama “miliyari icumi z'amadolari yakoreshejwe mu miyoboro” itumiza gaze gasanzwe mu Burusiya.Peskov yavuze kandi ko gahunda yizeye ko ibihugu bitatu bizashimangira ubufatanye no guteza imbere ibyo bikoresha gaze mu gihugu ndetse n’ibikorwa remezo byo gutwara abantu.
Amahirwe yo kwisoko arihe?
Ibura ry'ingufu mu Burayi no kuzamuka gukabije kw'ibiciro bizatuma habaho gaze ya gaze isanzwe ikoreshwa mu nganda, kandi n'umusaruro w’imiti y’iburayi uzamuka cyane.Muri icyo gihe, ibura ry’ingufu n’ibiciro byinshi rishobora gutuma umutwaro ugabanuka w’ibicuruzwa by’imiti byaho, bigatuma habaho icyuho kinini mu itangwa ry’imiti, bikarushaho kuzamura izamuka rikabije ry’ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa byaho mu Burayi.
Kugeza ubu, itandukaniro ry’ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa bimwe na bimwe by’imiti hagati y’Ubushinwa n’Uburayi bigenda byiyongera, kandi biteganijwe ko ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga biva mu Bushinwa byiyongera cyane.Mu bihe biri imbere, Ubushinwa butanga ingufu mu mbaraga gakondo n’ingufu nshya biteganijwe ko buzakomeza, inyungu z’ibiciro by’imiti y’Abashinwa ugereranije n’Uburayi bizakomeza kubaho, kandi guhangana ku isi ndetse n’inyungu ku nganda z’imiti mu Bushinwa biteganijwe ko bizakomeza kwiyongera.
Guohai Securities yizera ko igice cy’inganda z’ibanze z’imiti kimeze neza: muri byo, hari ibiteganijwe gutezimbere mu nganda z’imitungo itimukanwa mu gihugu, bikaba byiza ku mirenge ya polyurethane na soda;Fermentation y’ibibazo by’ingufu z’i Burayi, yibanda ku bwoko bwa vitamine bufite umusaruro mwinshi mu Burayi;Uruganda rukora imiti ya fosifore yamashanyarazi rufite ibiranga inganda zubuhinzi n’iterambere rishya;Urwego rw'ipine inyungu zayo zisubirwamo buhoro buhoro.
Polyurethane: Ku ruhande rumwe, ishyirwaho ry’ingingo ya 16 ya politiki yo gushyigikira imari y’imitungo itimukanwa bizafasha kuzamura imipaka y’isoko ry’imitungo yimbere mu gihugu no guteza imbere icyifuzo cya polyurethane;Ku rundi ruhande, ubushobozi bwo gukora MDI na TDI mu Burayi bugira uruhare runini.Niba ikibazo cy'ingufu gikomeje kwiyongera, umusaruro wa MDI na TDI mu Burayi urashobora kugabanuka, bikaba byiza ku bicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga.
Ivu rya Soda: Niba isoko ryimitungo yimbere mu gihugu rigenda ritera imbere gahoro gahoro, bizaba byiza ko ikirahure kiboneye gisanwa.Muri icyo gihe, ubushobozi bushya bwikirahure cya Photovoltaque nabwo buzatera icyifuzo cya ivu rya soda.
Vitamine: Ubushobozi bwa vitamine A na vitamine E mu Burayi bifite igice kinini.Niba ikibazo cy’ingufu z’i Burayi gikomeje kwiyongera, umusaruro wa vitamine A na vitamine E urashobora kongera kugabanuka, bigashyigikira igiciro.Byongeye kandi, inyungu zo korora ingurube zo mu rugo zagiye ziyongera buhoro buhoro mu gihe cya vuba, bikaba biteganijwe ko bizatera ishyaka abahinzi kuzuza, bityo bigatuma hakenerwa vitamine n’ibindi byongera ibiryo.
Inganda zikora imiti ya Fosifore: Hamwe n’irekurwa ry’ububiko bukenerwa bw’ifumbire, igiciro cy’ifumbire ya fosifate giteganijwe guhagarara no kuzamuka;Muri icyo gihe, icyifuzo cya fosifate y'icyuma ku binyabiziga bishya ndetse no kubika ingufu bikomeje kuba byinshi.
Amapine: Mugihe cyambere, nkuko amapine yaguye ku byambu byabanyamerika yahinduwe mubucuruzi bwabacuruzi, ibarura ryimiyoboro yabanyamerika ryari ryinshi, ariko
Hamwe nogutezimbere kujya mububiko, ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga byapine biteganijwe ko bizagenda buhoro buhoro.
JinDun Chemicalifite inganda zitunganya OEM muri Jiangsu, Anhui nahandi hantu zimaze imyaka mirongo zikorana, zitanga ubufasha bukomeye kuri serivisi yihariye yimiti yihariye.JinDun Chemical ishimangira gushinga itsinda rifite inzozi, gukora ibicuruzwa byiyubashye, byitondewe, birakomeye, kandi byose ukajya kuba umufatanyabikorwa wizewe ninshuti yabakiriya!Gerageza gukoraibikoresho bishya bya shimiuzane ejo hazaza heza ku isi!
Igihe cyo kohereza: Mutarama-03-2023